By Namith DP | June 14, 2025
Multiple civilian injuries reported, major senior military officials killed.
Situation Overview
- On June 12–13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation “Rising Lion”, deploying over 200 aircraft (F‑35, drones) to strike multiple Iranian nuclear and military targets, including facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan, Kermanshah, and assassination of key IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists.
- Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the campaign as essential to neutralize Iran’s nuclear progression. He emphasized Israel had reached a “point of no return”.
Targets & Tactical Results

Nuclear Infrastructure
- Natanz: Airstrike destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, affecting ~1,700 advanced centrifuges (IR‑4/IR‑6).
- Esfahan & Fordow: Attacks hit conversion facilities and air-defense systems; Fordow attack remains unverified.
Military Command & Air Defenses
- Kermanshah missile base and air-defense radar near Hamadan were struck.
- Several senior IRGC figures were killed:
- Gen. Hossein Salami, IRGC chief.
- Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, aerospace/missile commander.
- Additional nuclear scientists (five) identified by ISW .
Iran’s Retaliation
- Within 18 hours, Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack (100–150 missiles) and deployed over 100 drones targeting cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
- The Israeli Iron Dome, now supplemented by U.S. defenses, intercepted most projectiles, though some hit populated areas—causing dozens of injuries.
Strategic Impact Assessment
1. Degradation of Iran’s Capabilities
- Israel severely disrupted Iran’s nuclear enrichment and missile infrastructure.
- Targeted decapitation of senior leadership leaves Tehran tactically constrained.
2. Regional Hit to Proxy Networks
- Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis) have sustained losses and displayed limited ability to intervene .
3. Risk of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Analysts warn Iran may withdraw from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty or accelerate toward a nuclear weapons program.
- Supreme Leader Khamenei signaled possible steps toward nuclear weapons capability .
4. Global Market & Security Effects
- Oil prices surged ~9% on fears of supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz .
- Airspace restrictions hit commercial airline operations.
- U.S. forces in the Middle East upgraded defenses; evacuations occurred in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait .
Diplomatic & Global Responses
- United Nations: Secretary-General Guterres urged restraint to prevent broader war.
- G7 & Australia: Calls for diplomacy; concern over escalation.
- United States: Provided ballistic missile defense to Israel, denied complicity in strikes, supported a return to nuclear talks.
Key Questions & Insights
1. Can Israel Sustain the Campaign?
- Israel views this as a scaling air campaign, not a one-off strike .
- Success depends on dismantling critical components: centrifuges, missiles, air defenses.
2. Will Iran Escalate Further?
- Iran’s depleted leadership and defense limits the scale of effective retaliation.
- Proxy engagement by Hezbollah or Houthis remains uncertain; Houthis have already launched limited actions .
3. How Will Global Markets & Civilians Be Affected?
- Oil prices remain volatile; disruptions hit commercial airliners and Middle East logistics.
- Civilian reactions widespread in Iran; Jerusalem and Tel Aviv report infrastructure damage and injuries.
4. Is Nuclear Diplomacy over?
- Iran formally paused nuclear negotiations after strikes.
- Resuming talks depends on Iran’s ability to rebuild and the will of global powers.
Policy Recommendations
- Short-term: De-escalate through back-channel diplomacy; strengthen missile defenses and reassure regional partners.
- Medium-term: Reinforce NATO and U.S. naval presence to secure shipping lanes and deter further attacks.
- Long-term: Resume nuclear diplomacy with strict monitoring; integrate regional security frameworks that include Gulf states.
Strategic and Policy Implications
- Nuclear proliferation concerns are now front and center: Israel’s strikes have delayed Iran’s nuclear timeline, but risk pushing Tehran toward nuclear weaponization or withdrawal from the NPT.
- Proxy warfare risks remain: Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis hold capabilities to open multiple fronts. Iran’s depletion of missile leadership limits—but does not eliminate—this threat.
- U.S. strategic posture: Washington has deployed missile defenses to Israel, evacuated civilian staff region-wide, and is weighing additional sanctions and IRGC designation—yet remains cautious about direct military entry .
- Regional deterrence balance: Arab states walk a tight line—open to security cooperation with Israel and the U.S., but wary of alienating Iranian ties or public sentiment .
- Economic resilience: Markets face heightened volatility from persistent risk. Israel’s tech and bond markets and global energy prices remain sensitive to next moves. India and other import-dependent nations stand to feel ripple effects .
Summary
- Leadership disruption: Israel’s strikes significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear and military command, limiting Tehran’s strategic options—though not eliminating them.
- Retaliatory strikes: Iran demonstrated capability through missile and drone launches (including hypersonics), but high interception rates suggest a clash between capacity and execution.
- Proxy-shielded conflict: Regional actors and Arab allies play dual roles—cooperating with Israel on defense while preserving internal and diplomatic neutrality.
- Economic reverberations: Global energy prices, Israeli financial markets, and supply chains—especially in India—face increased instability.
- Diplomatic pressure: Western nations push for measured responses, seeking to curb Iran without igniting wider warfare.
- Future trajectory: Conflict remains dynamic. Military strikes may reset nuclear timelines and provoke escalation—or open space for renewed diplomacy under pressure.
About the author

Sources
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Good article.