Sudan’s crisis is not just another civil conflict in Africa. It’s a geopolitical chessboard where gold, power, and influence collide — and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as one of its most consequential players. If you’ve been watching the headlines about Khartoum’s destruction or the humanitarian crisis that’s unfolded, you might have missed the deeper question: why is the UAE so invested in this war?
This isn’t a simple story of aid or mediation. It’s a calculated contest for leverage in Africa’s vast mineral wealth, Red Sea access, and political alignment — a struggle that could reshape the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
The War Beneath the War
Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti.
What began as a military standoff escalated into one of the world’s deadliest ongoing conflicts. By late 2024, more than 14,000 people had been killed, and over 9 million displaced — the largest internal displacement crisis on the planet, according to the United Nations.
Both factions are fighting for control of Sudan’s future, but also for control over its most profitable resources: gold, trade routes, and military power.
Gold and Guns: The Real Stakes
Sudan is Africa’s third-largest gold producer. For years, much of its gold left the country through informal routes — smuggled, untaxed, and unrecorded. The RSF, under Hemedti’s command, controls most of Sudan’s gold mines, particularly in Darfur and other western regions.
Reports indicate that up to 80% of Sudan’s gold exports bypass official channels. Much of it ends up in the UAE, which has become a global hub for gold refining and trade.
For the UAE, this isn’t just about wealth — it’s about influence. By deepening economic ties with Sudan’s paramilitary leaders, Abu Dhabi gains a foothold in a strategically vital region that connects Africa to the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the SAF accuses the UAE of directly supplying weapons to the RSF, claims supported by multiple intelligence reports and eyewitness accounts from conflict zones.
How the UAE Got Entangled
To understand the UAE’s involvement, you have to look at its broader regional ambitions.
Since the Arab Spring, the UAE has pursued an assertive foreign policy designed to secure economic and security influence across the Middle East and Africa. Sudan sits at the crossroads of both.
The UAE’s motivations are threefold:
- Red Sea Access: Control over Sudan’s eastern coastline offers strategic military and trade advantages. The UAE already operates ports in Eritrea and Somalia and seeks deeper access to the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
- Resource Security: Gold, agricultural land, and livestock from Sudan provide diversification for Emirati investments and food security.
- Political Leverage: The UAE aims to shape post-conflict Sudan into an ally aligned with its regional interests, countering rivals like Qatar, Turkey, and Iran.
But this pursuit of influence has come at a cost. As the conflict deepens, the UAE faces growing international criticism for allegedly fueling one side of the war.
The Accusations: Weapons, Drones, and Logistics
Investigations by the United Nations and Western intelligence agencies have traced several RSF supply chains back to the UAE.
- Weapons Transfers: Satellite imagery and intelligence leaks suggest flights from the UAE’s bases in Libya and Chad carried weapons and ammunition destined for RSF forces.
- Drone Supplies: Analysts have identified drone components matching models used by the RSF that originated from Emirati-linked suppliers.
- Logistics Support: RSF fighters reportedly used airstrips and supply corridors supported by entities linked to the UAE.
The UAE denies any direct role in the conflict and maintains that its presence in Sudan is humanitarian. Yet humanitarian groups working on the ground have reported “aid flights” that coincide with periods of heavy RSF mobilization.
If confirmed, this would amount to a violation of international arms embargoes and complicate the UAE’s relations with Western allies.
The Humanitarian Catastrophe
While regional powers vie for influence, Sudanese civilians are paying the price.
- 9 million displaced — the largest displacement crisis globally.
- 1.2 million fled abroad, mainly to Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan.
- 25 million in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
- 4 million children are malnourished or at risk of starvation.
Hospitals have been destroyed. Food prices have tripled. Cholera and malaria are spreading rapidly in refugee camps. The country’s capital, Khartoum, has become a battleground of urban warfare reminiscent of Aleppo or Mosul.
If you’re reading this and wondering how the international community has responded — the answer is: not effectively. The world’s attention is elsewhere, and Sudan’s crisis risks becoming a permanent humanitarian blind spot.
The Geopolitical Ripple Effect
Sudan’s collapse doesn’t just affect its borders. It threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.
The conflict spills into Chad, South Sudan, and Eritrea, all of which have internal tensions of their own. Refugee inflows strain already fragile economies.
Egypt, for its part, backs the Sudanese Armed Forces, seeing the RSF as a threat to its security and influence. Meanwhile, the UAE’s involvement aligns it indirectly against Cairo’s interests — a rare point of tension between two traditional allies.
Russia and the Wagner Group have also been active in Sudan, with reported links to gold mining operations and RSF cooperation. If the UAE’s financial and logistical support strengthens the RSF, it could also indirectly boost Russia’s access to African resources — a troubling scenario for Western powers.
What This Means for You
You might ask — why should you care about Sudan’s internal war?
Because what happens in Sudan will influence global commodity flows, migration routes, and even international security.
- Gold Supply Chains: The UAE’s gold imports from Sudan feed into the global market. If this supply remains tied to conflict minerals, it raises ethical and compliance risks for companies and investors.
- Humanitarian and Refugee Pressures: A prolonged war means more migration from Africa to Europe and the Gulf, testing global refugee systems.
- Red Sea Security: Instability near the Red Sea affects global shipping — including energy supplies, trade insurance, and food prices.
If you work in global trade, policy, or ESG compliance, Sudan’s conflict isn’t just a distant issue. It’s part of the world’s next major geopolitical fault line.
The UAE’s Balancing Act
The UAE’s leadership faces a delicate dilemma.
On one hand, it wants to project itself as a global humanitarian actor — hosting climate summits, investing in renewable energy, and branding itself as a modern, progressive state.
On the other, its actions in Sudan suggest a willingness to play hardball geopolitics. This dual identity — benevolent investor abroad, strategic influencer behind the scenes — defines much of its foreign policy.
Diplomatic analysts describe Abu Dhabi’s strategy as “controlled engagement”: invest in local elites, secure economic access, and position itself as indispensable to regional stability.
Yet in Sudan, the line between influence and interference is increasingly blurred.
Can Peace Be Brokered?
Multiple peace efforts have failed. Talks brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in Jeddah have stalled repeatedly, with each side accusing the other of violating ceasefire terms.
The African Union and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) have called for negotiations, but neither Burhan nor Hemedti seems willing to compromise. Both believe they can win militarily.
If the UAE truly wants to stabilize Sudan, it holds one of the keys — economic leverage. Its financial networks and business interests in Sudan’s gold and trade sectors could be used to pressure both sides toward dialogue.
But will it?
That depends on whether Abu Dhabi views peace as more valuable than influence.
The Future of Sudan’s Economy
Before the war, Sudan’s economy was already fragile — burdened by debt, inflation, and the legacy of decades of authoritarian rule. The conflict has erased what little progress it made.
- GDP contracted by over 30% in 2023.
- Inflation remains above 250%.
- Gold exports (mostly informal) remain Sudan’s only major foreign currency source.
With agriculture disrupted and manufacturing halted, Sudan faces economic collapse. The RSF’s control of key trade routes gives it significant leverage, while the SAF holds much of the formal state infrastructure.
In such an environment, any postwar recovery will depend on external players — particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. That makes Sudan’s sovereignty vulnerable to economic dependency.
The Bigger Picture: Africa’s New Power Contest
Sudan is not an isolated case. Across Africa, Gulf states are expanding influence through ports, mining, and military partnerships.
The UAE has invested billions in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. It operates military facilities in Eritrea and Somaliland. Its growing footprint across Africa mirrors China’s and Turkey’s expansion strategies — but with a focus on logistics and commodities rather than manufacturing.
This is Africa’s new scramble for influence — less colonial, more corporate. Sudan’s war is both a tragedy and a template.
What Needs to Change
If the international community wants to prevent Sudan from becoming another Syria or Libya, three things are essential:
- Accountability for external interference: Transparent investigation into foreign funding and arms flows, including those tied to the UAE.
- Economic pressure on illicit gold networks: Targeted sanctions and auditing of gold imports through Dubai refineries.
- Support for regional diplomacy: Empower African-led mediation rather than relying solely on Western or Gulf initiatives.
Without these measures, the war will drag on — enriching a few and destroying millions of lives.
Final Thoughts
When you read headlines about Sudan, don’t just see chaos — see a map of power. The war is not random. It’s about who gets to profit from Sudan’s gold, control its ports, and shape its alliances.
The UAE’s involvement is neither accidental nor purely altruistic. It’s strategic, deliberate, and deeply tied to its long-term vision of becoming a global middle power.
For Sudan, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether it emerges as a sovereign state or a fragmented proxy battlefield will depend on how these external forces are restrained — or emboldened — in the months to come.
References
- BBC News – “Sudan War: What’s Behind the Fighting?” – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65280787
- Reuters – “UAE Accused of Supplying Weapons to Sudan’s RSF” – https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uae-sudan-weapons-rsf-2024-07-15
- Al Jazeera – “Sudan’s Gold, the UAE, and the War Economy” – https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/06/10/sudan-gold-uae-war
- The Guardian – “Sudan Conflict: 9 Million Displaced as Fighting Escalates” – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/05/sudan-war-humanitarian-crisis
- Financial Times – “The UAE’s Expanding Footprint in Africa’s Resource Wars” – https://www.ft.com/content/uae-africa-influence
- UN OCHA – “Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2024” – https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/un-ocha-sudan-hrp-2024
- United Nations Report on Sudan Conflict – https://www.un.org/en/africa/sudan-crisis-report
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